Model-Based Evaluation of the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures Under Cyber Attacks

In this paper we report recent results on modelling the impact of cyber-attacks on the resilience of complex industrial systems. We use a hybrid model of the system under study in which the accidental failures and the malicious behaviour of the Adversary are modelled stochastically, while the consequences of failures and attacks are modelled in detail using deterministic models. This modelling approach is demonstrated on a complex case study a reference power transmission network (NORDIC 32), enhanced with a detailed model of the computer and communication network used for monitoring, protection and control compliant with the international standard IEC 61850. We studied the resilience of the modelled system under different scenarios: i) a base-line scenario in which the modelled system operates in the presence of accidental failures without cyber-attacks; ii) several different scenarios of cyberattacks. We discuss the usefulness of the modelling approach, of the findings, and outline directions for further work.